Frodo, a junior engineer at Baggins Metal Works is considering the introduction of a new line of products. In order to produce the new line, the company needs either a major or minor renovation of the current plant. The market for the new line of products could be either favorable or unfavorable, each with equal chance of occurrence. The company has the option of not developing the new product line at all. With major renovation, the company’s payoff from a favorable market is $100,000, from an unfavorable market, $ -90,000. Minor renovation and favorable market has a payoff of $40,000 and an unfavorable market, $-20,000. Not developing the new product line effectively has $0 payoff. Frodo realizes that he should get more information before making his final decision. He contracted with Gandalf Market Research to conduct a market analysis to determine for certain if the market will be favorable or unfavorable. How much is the maximum amount Frodo should be willing to pay Gandalf Market Research for this accurate information? If expected payoff is used as the criterion for choosing among the alternatives, which alternative should Frodo chose? Draw the decision tree used in your choice selection.
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