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The manager of a travel agency has been using a seasonally adjusted forecast to predict demand for packaged tours The actual and predicted values are as follow

 The manager of a travel agency has been using a seasonally adjusted forecast to predict demand for packaged tours. The actual and predicted values are as follows:

 

Period

Demand

Predicted

1

129

124

2

194

200

3

156

150

4

91

94

5

85

80

6

132

140

7

126

128

8

126

124

9

95

100

10

149

150

11

98

94

12

85

80

13

137

140

14

134

128

a.    Compute MAD for the fifth period, then update it period by period using exponential smoothing with a = .3.

b.   Compute a tracking signal for periods 5 through 14 using the initial and updated MADs. If limits of ± 4 are used, what can you conclude?

Aug 09 2020 View more View Less

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