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The demand for a certain rail transit system shows stable growth over the past decade as shown in Table 1 below. An analyst seeks to estimate the expected demand at year 2008 when the system is due for improvement. (Note well: (1) use spreadsheet software such as MS Excel to generate the responses to (i) and (ii) below. (2) the “time” variable used in the analysis should be year since 1990) i. Use linear functional form to predict the expected demand in that year. ii. Use the exponential functional form to predict the expected demand in that year. iii. What are the concerns with using trend analysis for demand estimation? Table 1: Annual Ridership of a Rail Transit System Year 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Demand (Millions of Passengers per year) 1.25 1.37 1.45 1.58 1.72 1.95 2.31 2.48
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